Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Defensa y Justicia had a probability of 27.77% and a draw had a probability of 27.1%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.81%) and 2-0 (8.64%). The likeliest Defensa y Justicia win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.76%). The actual scoreline of 2-3 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood.
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