SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a America Mineiro win with a probability of 54.02%. A draw had a probability of 23.8% and a win for Penarol had a probability of 22.13%.
The most likely scoreline for an America Mineiro win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.74%) and 2-0 (9.65%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.33%), while for a Penarol win it was 0-1 (6.59%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that America Mineiro would win this match.
| Result | ||
| America Mineiro | Draw | Penarol |
54.02% ( -0.09) | 23.84% ( 0.02) | 22.13% ( 0.07) |
| Both teams to score 52.17% ( 0.02) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.34% ( -0.02) | 48.65% ( 0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.23% ( -0.02) | 70.77% ( 0.02) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 82.08% ( -0.04) | 17.92% ( 0.04) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 51.27% ( -0.07) | 48.72% ( 0.07) |
| Penarol Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.56% ( 0.05) | 36.43% ( -0.05) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.77% ( 0.05) | 73.22% ( -0.06) |
| Score Analysis |
| America Mineiro | Draw | Penarol |
| 1-0 @ 11.22% ( -0.01) 2-1 @ 9.74% ( -0)2-0 @ 9.65% ( -0.02)3-1 @ 5.59% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 5.53% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.82% ( -0)4-1 @ 2.4% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 2.38% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.21% ( -0)Other @ 3.48% Total : 54.02% | 1-1 @ 11.33% ( 0.01) 0-0 @ 6.53% ( 0)2-2 @ 4.92% ( 0)3-3 @ 0.95% ( 0)Other @ 0.11% Total : 23.83% | 0-1 @ 6.59% ( 0.01) 1-2 @ 5.72% ( 0.01)0-2 @ 3.33% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 1.93% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.66% ( 0)0-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.01)Other @ 1.79% Total : 22.13% |
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