SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Defensa y Justicia win with a probability of 37.63%. A win for America Mineiro had a probability of 35.6% and a draw had a probability of 26.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Defensa y Justicia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.2%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.21%) and 2-0 (6.58%). The likeliest America Mineiro win was 0-1 (9.87%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Defensa y Justicia would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | America Mineiro |
37.63% ( -0.16) | 26.77% ( 0.01) | 35.6% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 51.63% ( -0.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 46.55% ( -0.05) | 53.45% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 25.02% ( -0.04) | 74.97% ( 0.03) |
| Defensa y Justicia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.46% ( -0.11) | 27.53% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.95% ( -0.14) | 63.05% ( 0.14) |
| America Mineiro Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.26% ( 0.06) | 28.74% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.42% ( 0.08) | 64.57% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Defensa y Justicia | Draw | America Mineiro |
| 1-0 @ 10.2% ( -0.02) 2-1 @ 8.21% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 6.58% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.53% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 2.83% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.2% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)4-0 @ 0.91% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.03% Total : 37.62% | 1-1 @ 12.72% 0-0 @ 7.91% ( 0.01)2-2 @ 5.12% ( -0)3-3 @ 0.91% ( -0)Other @ 0.1% Total : 26.76% | 0-1 @ 9.87% ( 0.03) 1-2 @ 7.93% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 3.3% ( 0.01)0-3 @ 2.56% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 2.13% ( 0)1-4 @ 1.03% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.64% Total : 35.6% |
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