Fogo seem to be putting their primary focus on the domestic campaign, but they are as good defensively as anyone in South America, and their overall depth should be enough to earn them an opening leg victory this week.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Botafogo win with a probability of 70.02%. A draw had a probability of 19.8% and a win for Guarani had a probability of 10.17%.
The most likely scoreline for a Botafogo win was 1-0 with a probability of 15.34%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.03%) and 3-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a Guarani win it was 0-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Botafogo would win this match.
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