SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Club Libertad win with a probability of 46%. A win for Universidad Catolica had a probability of 28.82% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Club Libertad win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.18%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.25%) and 2-0 (7.89%). The likeliest Universidad Catolica win was 0-1 (7.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.94%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Club Libertad would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Club Libertad | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
46% ( 0.11) | 25.17% ( 0.25) | 28.82% ( -0.37) |
| Both teams to score 54.38% ( -1.05) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.17% ( -1.27) | 48.82% ( 1.27) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.08% ( -1.17) | 70.92% ( 1.16) |
| Club Libertad Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.75% ( -0.47) | 21.24% ( 0.47) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.85% ( -0.74) | 54.15% ( 0.73) |
| Universidad Catolica Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 69.05% ( -0.92) | 30.94% ( 0.91) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.75% ( -1.09) | 67.24% ( 1.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Club Libertad | Draw | Universidad Catolica |
| 1-0 @ 10.18% ( 0.38) 2-1 @ 9.25% ( -0.01)2-0 @ 7.89% ( 0.19)3-1 @ 4.78% ( -0.08)3-0 @ 4.07% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.8% ( -0.12)4-1 @ 1.85% ( -0.06)4-0 @ 1.58% ( -0.01)4-2 @ 1.09% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.51% Total : 46% | 1-1 @ 11.94% ( 0.15) 0-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.34)2-2 @ 5.43% ( -0.15)3-3 @ 1.1% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.13% Total : 25.17% | 0-1 @ 7.71% ( 0.21) 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.09)0-2 @ 4.52% ( 0.01)1-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 2.12% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.77% ( -0.04)Other @ 2.96% Total : 28.82% |
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