Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Palmeiras win with a probability of 36.34%. A win for Cruzeiro had a probability of 35.83% and a draw had a probability of 27.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Palmeiras win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.83%) and 0-2 (6.61%). The likeliest Cruzeiro win was 1-0 (10.98%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.11%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.01) 
