While Deportivo Tachira did fight well in South America's top competition, we see the travelling Brazilian outfit as the stronger side and back them to pick up a narrow win before the home leg.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Santos win with a probability of 37.01%. A win for Deportivo Tachira had a probability of 35.33% and a draw had a probability of 27.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Santos win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.04%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.95%) and 0-2 (6.72%). The likeliest Deportivo Tachira win was 1-0 (10.73%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.06%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood.
-0.03) 
0.04) 
