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Emelec have been held to a draw in their last four competitive home games, and we think that they will have to settle for another point when they face Danubio in their final group match.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Emelec win with a probability of 51.27%. A draw had a probability of 27% and a win for Danubio had a probability of 21.75%.
The most likely scoreline for a Emelec win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.68%) and 2-1 (8.86%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.37%), while for a Danubio win it was 0-1 (8.64%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8.9% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Emelec in this match and our data analysis correctly predicted the win for Emelec.
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