Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Guairena win with a probability of 43.46%. A draw had a probability of 28.8% and a win for 9 de Octubre had a probability of 27.72%.
The most likely scoreline for a Guairena win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.78%) and 2-1 (8.2%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (13.15%), while for a 9 de Octubre win it was 0-1 (10.55%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 14.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Guairena in this match.
