Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 37.88%. A win for Bahia had a probability of 37.43% and a draw had a probability of 24.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.42%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.92%) and 2-0 (5.79%). The likeliest Bahia win was 1-2 (8.36%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 7.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.
