Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 37.03%. A win for Montevideo City Torque had a probability of 34.34% and a draw had a probability of 28.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.71%) and 0-2 (6.98%). The likeliest Montevideo City Torque win was 1-0 (11.49%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.31%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 13.3% likelihood.
