With first place basically assured, Sao Paulo will want to get through this match without any serious injuries, so we do not expect this to be a very intense game.
However, the overall depth of Tricolor Paulista along with a solid defensive shape should be enough for them to claim a narrow victory against an opponent in Tigre who are struggling away from home.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Sao Paulo win with a probability of 52.4%. A draw had a probability of 24.3% and a win for Tigre had a probability of 23.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Sao Paulo win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.65%) and 2-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.55%), while for a Tigre win it was 0-1 (6.92%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Sao Paulo would win this match.
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