SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Union win with a probability of 48.64%. A draw had a probability of 27.5% and a win for Gimnasia had a probability of 23.85%.
The most likely scoreline for a Union win was 1-0 with a probability of 14.43%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.97%) and 2-1 (8.75%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.66%), while for a Gimnasia win it was 0-1 (9.17%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Union would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Union | Draw | Gimnasia |
48.64% ( 0.16) | 27.5% ( -0.3) | 23.85% ( 0.14) |
| Both teams to score 43.74% ( 0.88) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 39.3% ( 1.06) | 60.69% ( -1.07) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 19.23% ( 0.79) | 80.76% ( -0.8) |
| Union Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.88% ( 0.55) | 25.12% ( -0.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.17% ( 0.76) | 59.82% ( -0.77) |
| Gimnasia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 58.41% ( 0.74) | 41.58% ( -0.75) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 21.93% ( 0.65) | 78.07% ( -0.66) |
| Score Analysis |
| Union | Draw | Gimnasia |
| 1-0 @ 14.43% ( -0.34) 2-0 @ 9.97% ( -0.07)2-1 @ 8.75% ( 0.11)3-0 @ 4.59% ( 0.04)3-1 @ 4.03% ( 0.11)3-2 @ 1.77% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 1.59% ( 0.04)4-1 @ 1.39% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.14% Total : 48.64% | 1-1 @ 12.66% ( -0.04) 0-0 @ 10.44% ( -0.42)2-2 @ 3.84% ( 0.13)Other @ 0.56% Total : 27.5% | 0-1 @ 9.17% ( -0.18) 1-2 @ 5.56% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 4.02% ( 0)1-3 @ 1.63% ( 0.06)0-3 @ 1.18% ( 0.02)2-3 @ 1.12% ( 0.06)Other @ 1.18% Total : 23.85% |
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