Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Independiente win with a probability of 45.76%. A draw had a probability of 27.9% and a win for Patronato had a probability of 26.39%.
The most likely scoreline for a Independiente win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.72%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.15%) and 2-1 (8.6%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.9%), while for a Patronato win it was 0-1 (9.68%). The actual scoreline of 2-0 was predicted with a 9.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Independiente would win this match.