Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Patronato win with a probability of 50.81%. A draw had a probability of 25.9% and a win for Sarmiento had a probability of 23.25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Patronato win was 1-0 with a probability of 13.11%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (9.93%) and 2-1 (9.26%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (12.22%), while for a Sarmiento win it was 0-1 (8.08%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 13.1% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-0 win for Patronato in this match.
