Given Cagliari's defensive deficiencies - clearly apparent when losing at home to Milan earlier this season - and their lack of fortitude when on the road, even a much-changed Milan side should safely secure a place in the Coppa Italia quarter-finals.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AC Milan win with a probability of 58.43%. A draw had a probability of 22.5% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 19.04%.
The most likely scoreline for an AC Milan win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.4%) and 2-1 (9.88%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (10.7%), while for a Cagliari win it was 0-1 (5.79%). The actual scoreline of 4-1 was predicted with a 2.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AC Milan would win this match.
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