SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 60.15%. A draw had a probability of 21.2% and a win for Cagliari had a probability of 18.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.96%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (9.83%) and 2-0 (9.82%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.97%), while for a Cagliari win it was 1-2 (5.06%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 2-1 win for Napoli in this match and our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted the win for Napoli.
| Result | ||
| Napoli | Draw | Cagliari |
60.15% ( 0.06) | 21.24% ( -0.01) | 18.6% ( -0.05) |
| Both teams to score 55.08% ( -0.07) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.92% ( -0.05) | 42.07% ( 0.04) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 35.52% ( -0.04) | 64.47% ( 0.04) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.42% ( 0) | 13.58% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.31% ( 0.01) | 40.69% ( -0.01) |
| Cagliari Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 63.73% ( -0.08) | 36.26% ( 0.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 26.95% ( -0.08) | 73.04% ( 0.08) |
| Score Analysis |
| Napoli | Draw | Cagliari |
| 2-1 @ 9.96% 1-0 @ 9.83% ( 0.02)2-0 @ 9.82% ( 0.02)3-1 @ 6.63% ( 0)3-0 @ 6.53% ( 0.01)3-2 @ 3.36% ( -0.01)4-1 @ 3.31% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.26% ( 0.01)4-2 @ 1.68% ( -0)5-1 @ 1.32% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.3% ( 0)Other @ 3.16% Total : 60.15% | 1-1 @ 9.97% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.05% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 4.92% ( 0.01)3-3 @ 1.14% ( -0.01)Other @ 0.16% Total : 21.24% | 1-2 @ 5.06% ( -0.01) 0-1 @ 5% ( -0)0-2 @ 2.53% ( -0.01)1-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)2-3 @ 1.71% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.6% Total : 18.6% |
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