As Atalanta's squad depth is more substantial than their visitors', even if Gian Piero Gasperini overhauls his side for the cup, they can still make it through to the last eight. Setting up a quarter-final tie with regional rivals Inter, the Bergamaschi are sure to score at least once past opponents who are not the most secure in defence.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 58.73%. A draw had a probability of 21% and a win for Spezia had a probability of 20.32%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.87%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.71%) and 1-0 (8.45%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.58%), while for a Spezia win it was 1-2 (5.43%). The actual scoreline of 5-2 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
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