Lecce have been in poor form of late and need to start picking up wins if they are to avoid being relegated to Serie B after just a season in Italy's top flight.
Atalanta have a stunning away record and have only lost to title rivals so far this season, meaning it is hard to see anything other than an away win in this one.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 53.95%. A draw had a probability of 24.8% and a win for Lecce had a probability of 21.27%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 0-1 with a probability of 12.79%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-2 (10.38%) and 1-2 (9.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (11.73%), while for a Lecce win it was 1-0 (7.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 5.4% likelihood.
-0.05) 
0.15) 
