During the opening 15 minutes of play in Serie A this season, Salernitana have shipped the joint-most goals (six), but they cannot afford a slow start on Sunday. There are some signs Atalanta may be clicking back into gear following the winter break, and the hosts can punish any slip-ups from a vulnerable away side.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Atalanta BC win with a probability of 66.7%. A draw had a probability of 19.9% and a win for Salernitana had a probability of 13.43%.
The most likely scoreline for an Atalanta BC win was 2-0 with a probability of 12.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (11.89%) and 2-1 (9.71%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.45%), while for a Salernitana win it was 0-1 (4.6%). The actual scoreline of 8-2 was predicted with a 0% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Atalanta BC would win this match.
-0.63) 
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