SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Napoli win with a probability of 45.14%. A win for Atalanta BC had a probability of 30.42% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Napoli win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.22%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.94%) and 0-2 (7.2%). The likeliest Atalanta BC win was 2-1 (7.33%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.44%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Napoli in this match.
| Result | ||
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Napoli |
30.42% ( 0.53) | 24.44% ( 0.21) | 45.14% ( -0.74) |
| Both teams to score 57.79% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.2% ( -0.69) | 44.8% ( 0.7) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 32.84% ( -0.67) | 67.15% ( 0.68) |
| Atalanta BC Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.21% ( 0.01) | 27.79% ( -0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.62% ( 0.01) | 63.38% ( -0) |
| Napoli Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.03% ( -0.59) | 19.97% ( 0.6) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.86% ( -0.96) | 52.14% ( 0.97) |
| Score Analysis |
| Atalanta BC | Draw | Napoli |
| 2-1 @ 7.33% ( 0.09) 1-0 @ 7.11% ( 0.21)2-0 @ 4.55% ( 0.14)3-1 @ 3.13% ( 0.04)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.02)3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 1% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.85% Total : 30.42% | 1-1 @ 11.44% ( 0.13) 2-2 @ 5.9% ( -0.04)0-0 @ 5.55% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.35% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.19% Total : 24.44% | 1-2 @ 9.22% ( -0.06) 0-1 @ 8.94% ( 0.1)0-2 @ 7.2% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 4.95% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.87% ( -0.1)2-3 @ 3.17% ( -0.08)1-4 @ 1.99% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.56% ( -0.07)2-4 @ 1.28% ( -0.06)Other @ 2.95% Total : 45.14% |
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