With only six league losses all season, allied to one of Serie B's best defensive records, Brescia will certainly be no pushovers for ambitious Monza over the coming days.
They do, however, have to recover shortly after an extra-time epic to reach this stage, while their opponents were able to rest, so may only manage a first-leg draw at Stadio Rigamonti.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Brescia win with a probability of 43.38%. A win for Monza had a probability of 29.76% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Brescia win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.66%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.77%) and 2-0 (8.03%). The likeliest Monza win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.73%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7% likelihood.
0.35) 
-0.04) 
