SM
| Current Group D Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Angola | 3 | 3 | 7 |
| 2 | Burkina Faso | 3 | -1 | 4 |
| 3 | Mauritania | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 4 | Algeria | 3 | -1 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Lesotho win with a probability of 35%. A win for Angola had a probability of 34.95% and a draw had a probability of 30%.
The most likely scoreline for a Lesotho win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.92%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.06%) and 2-0 (6.76%). The likeliest Angola win was 0-1 (12.91%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.5%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 2.5% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Lesotho | Draw | Angola |
35% ( 1.46) | 30.04% ( -0.78) | 34.95% ( -0.68) |
| Both teams to score 42.04% ( 2.03) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 34.77% ( 2.37) | 65.22% ( -2.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 15.95% ( 1.62) | 84.04% ( -1.62) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.85% ( 2.33) | 35.14% ( -2.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.1% ( 2.36) | 71.89% ( -2.37) |
| Angola Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 64.82% ( 0.83) | 35.18% ( -0.83) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 28.06% ( 0.86) | 71.93% ( -0.86) |
| Score Analysis |
| Lesotho | Draw | Angola |
| 1-0 @ 12.92% ( -0.32) 2-1 @ 7.06% ( 0.42)2-0 @ 6.76% ( 0.26)3-1 @ 2.46% ( 0.29)3-0 @ 2.36% ( 0.23)3-2 @ 1.29% ( 0.18)Other @ 2.15% Total : 35% | 1-1 @ 13.5% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 12.36% ( -1.13)2-2 @ 3.69% ( 0.3)Other @ 0.48% Total : 30.03% | 0-1 @ 12.91% ( -0.87) 1-2 @ 7.06% ( 0.15)0-2 @ 6.75% ( -0.29)1-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.11)0-3 @ 2.35% ( -0.05)2-3 @ 1.29% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.14% Total : 34.95% |
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