SM
| Current Group E Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Mali | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Tunisia | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Angola | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Mauritania | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Angola win with a probability of 68.14%. A draw had a probability of 21.4% and a win for Lesotho had a probability of 10.49%.
The most likely scoreline for an Angola win was 1-0 with a probability of 17.08%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (15.51%) and 3-0 (9.39%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 0-0 (9.41%), while for a Lesotho win it was 0-1 (5.15%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 0.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Angola would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Angola | Draw | Lesotho |
68.14% ( -0.38) | 21.37% ( 0.2) | 10.49% ( 0.17) |
| Both teams to score 35.3% ( 0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 42.06% ( -0.3) | 57.94% ( 0.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 21.36% ( -0.24) | 78.64% ( 0.23) |
| Angola Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.73% ( -0.23) | 16.27% ( 0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.18% ( -0.42) | 45.82% ( 0.42) |
| Lesotho Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 42.16% ( 0.16) | 57.84% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 10.49% ( 0.09) | 89.51% ( -0.09) |
| Score Analysis |
| Angola | Draw | Lesotho |
| 1-0 @ 17.08% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 15.51% ( -0.07)3-0 @ 9.39% ( -0.12)2-1 @ 8.49% ( 0.01)3-1 @ 5.14% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 4.26% ( -0.09)4-1 @ 2.33% ( -0.03)5-0 @ 1.55% ( -0.04)3-2 @ 1.41% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 68.13% | 0-0 @ 9.41% ( 0.11) 1-1 @ 9.36% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 2.33% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.27% Total : 21.37% | 0-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.09) 1-2 @ 2.56% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.03)Other @ 1.37% Total : 10.49% |
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