SM
| Current Group F Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 1 | Morocco | 3 | 4 | 7 |
| 2 | Congo DR | 3 | 0 | 3 |
| 3 | Zambia | 3 | -1 | 2 |
| 4 | Tanzania | 3 | -3 | 2 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Zambia win with a probability of 36.5%. A win for Kenya had a probability of 36.11% and a draw had a probability of 27.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Zambia win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (7.94%) and 2-0 (6.53%). The likeliest Kenya win was 0-1 (10.58%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.96%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 6.4% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Zambia | Draw | Kenya |
36.5% ( 0.18) | 27.38% ( -0.2) | 36.11% ( 0.01) |
| Both teams to score 49.72% ( 0.61) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 44.13% ( 0.76) | 55.87% ( -0.77) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 23.01% ( 0.61) | 76.98% ( -0.62) |
| Zambia Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.63% ( 0.49) | 29.37% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.64% ( 0.59) | 65.35% ( -0.6) |
| Kenya Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.39% ( 0.38) | 29.61% ( -0.38) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.35% ( 0.46) | 65.64% ( -0.47) |
| Score Analysis |
| Zambia | Draw | Kenya |
| 1-0 @ 10.65% ( -0.17) 2-1 @ 7.94% ( 0.07)2-0 @ 6.53% ( -0.01)3-1 @ 3.24% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 2.67% ( 0.03)3-2 @ 1.97% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 0.99% ( 0.04)Other @ 2.5% Total : 36.5% | 1-1 @ 12.96% ( -0.07) 0-0 @ 8.7% ( -0.26)2-2 @ 4.84% ( 0.09)Other @ 0.88% Total : 27.37% | 0-1 @ 10.58% ( -0.2) 1-2 @ 7.89% ( 0.04)0-2 @ 6.44% ( -0.05)1-3 @ 3.2% ( 0.05)0-3 @ 2.61% ( 0.01)2-3 @ 1.96% ( 0.06)1-4 @ 0.97% ( 0.03)Other @ 2.45% Total : 36.11% |
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