SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Helmond Sport win with a probability of 47.29%. A win for Jong Ajax had a probability of 31.13% and a draw had a probability of 21.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Helmond Sport win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.77%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (5.82%) and 1-0 (5.54%). The likeliest Jong Ajax win was 1-2 (7.01%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (8.81%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 5.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Helmond Sport would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Helmond Sport | Draw | Jong Ajax |
47.29% ( 0.67) | 21.58% ( -0.16) | 31.13% ( -0.51) |
| Both teams to score 68.75% ( 0.33) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 69.41% ( 0.54) | 30.59% ( -0.53) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 48.1% ( 0.64) | 51.9% ( -0.63) |
| Helmond Sport Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 86.35% ( 0.42) | 13.65% ( -0.42) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 59.16% ( 0.83) | 40.84% ( -0.83) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 79.62% ( -0.01) | 20.37% ( 0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 47.21% ( -0.01) | 52.79% ( 0.02) |
| Score Analysis |
| Helmond Sport | Draw | Jong Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 8.77% ( 0) 3-1 @ 5.82% ( 0.09)1-0 @ 5.54% ( -0.08)2-0 @ 5.52% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.63% ( 0.07)3-0 @ 3.66% ( 0.06)4-1 @ 2.9% ( 0.09)4-2 @ 2.31% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.82% ( 0.06)4-3 @ 1.22% ( 0.04)5-1 @ 1.16% ( 0.05)5-2 @ 0.92% ( 0.04)Other @ 3.03% Total : 47.29% | 1-1 @ 8.81% ( -0.13) 2-2 @ 6.98% ( 0)0-0 @ 2.78% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 2.46% ( 0.04)Other @ 0.55% Total : 21.58% | 1-2 @ 7.01% ( -0.11) 0-1 @ 4.43% ( -0.14)1-3 @ 3.72% ( -0.06)2-3 @ 3.7% 0-2 @ 3.52% ( -0.11)0-3 @ 1.87% ( -0.06)1-4 @ 1.48% ( -0.02)2-4 @ 1.47% ( -0)3-4 @ 0.98% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.96% Total : 31.13% |
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