Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 42.57%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 34.47% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.75%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.48%) and 2-0 (5.64%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (7.78%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.04%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 10% likelihood.
