SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Almere City | 5 | -2 | 6 |
| 11 | Jong Ajax | 4 | -1 | 4 |
| 12 | Dordrecht | 4 | -2 | 4 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 3 | VVV-Venlo | 5 | 2 | 12 |
| 4 | Heracles | 4 | 10 | 10 |
| 5 | Roda JC | 5 | 4 | 10 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Jong Ajax win with a probability of 51.59%. A win for Heracles had a probability of 26.17% and a draw had a probability of 22.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Jong Ajax win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (7.6%) and 2-0 (7.28%). The likeliest Heracles win was 1-2 (6.53%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.96%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Jong Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
51.59% ( 1.62) | 22.24% ( -0.08) | 26.17% ( -1.53) |
| Both teams to score 62.31% ( -1.13) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 62.59% ( -0.88) | 37.41% ( 0.88) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 40.37% ( -0.95) | 59.63% ( 0.95) |
| Jong Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 85.29% ( 0.23) | 14.71% ( -0.23) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 57.09% ( 0.43) | 42.9% ( -0.43) |
| Heracles Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.05% ( -1.52) | 26.95% ( 1.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.72% ( -2.04) | 62.28% ( 2.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong Ajax | Draw | Heracles |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% ( 0.15) 1-0 @ 7.6% ( 0.38)2-0 @ 7.28% ( 0.42)3-1 @ 6.1% ( 0.14)3-0 @ 4.65% ( 0.3)3-2 @ 4% ( -0.08)4-1 @ 2.92% ( 0.09)4-0 @ 2.23% ( 0.16)4-2 @ 1.92% ( -0.02)5-1 @ 1.12% ( 0.04)Other @ 4.22% Total : 51.59% | 1-1 @ 9.96% ( 0.07) 2-2 @ 6.26% ( -0.18)0-0 @ 3.96% ( 0.17)3-3 @ 1.75% ( -0.12)Other @ 0.31% Total : 22.24% | 1-2 @ 6.53% ( -0.24) 0-1 @ 5.2% ( -0)0-2 @ 3.41% ( -0.15)1-3 @ 2.86% ( -0.24)2-3 @ 2.74% ( -0.2)0-3 @ 1.49% ( -0.14)1-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.12)Other @ 3.02% Total : 26.17% |
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