SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 45.76%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 29.94% and a draw had a probability of 24.3%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.28%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.9%) and 0-2 (7.27%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (7.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.35%). The actual scoreline of 0-2 was predicted with a 7.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Jong AZ | Draw | Willem II |
29.94% ( -0.16) | 24.29% ( -0.02) | 45.76% ( 0.18) |
| Both teams to score 58.03% ( -0.04) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 55.65% ( -0) | 44.36% ( 0) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 33.27% ( -0) | 66.73% ( 0) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 72.11% ( -0.11) | 27.89% ( 0.11) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 36.5% ( -0.14) | 63.5% ( 0.14) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.48% ( 0.07) | 19.52% ( -0.07) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.58% ( 0.12) | 51.42% ( -0.12) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong AZ | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 7.25% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 6.95% ( -0.02)2-0 @ 4.44% ( -0.03)3-1 @ 3.09% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 2.52% ( -0.01)3-0 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 0.99% ( -0.01)Other @ 2.82% Total : 29.95% | 1-1 @ 11.35% ( -0.01) 2-2 @ 5.92% ( -0.01)0-0 @ 5.45% ( 0)3-3 @ 1.37% ( -0)Other @ 0.2% Total : 24.29% | 1-2 @ 9.28% ( 0.02) 0-1 @ 8.9% ( 0.02)0-2 @ 7.27% ( 0.03)1-3 @ 5.05% ( 0.02)0-3 @ 3.96% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.23% ( 0)1-4 @ 2.06% ( 0.01)0-4 @ 1.62% ( 0.01)2-4 @ 1.32% ( 0)Other @ 3.1% Total : 45.76% |
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