SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 65.79%. A draw had a probability of 19.2% and a win for MVV Maastricht had a probability of 14.96%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.51%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.86%) and 1-0 (9.63%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (9.02%), while for a MVV Maastricht win it was 1-2 (4.23%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with a 9.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Willem II | Draw | MVV Maastricht |
65.79% ( -4.39) | 19.25% ( 1.46) | 14.96% ( 2.93) |
| Both teams to score 53.98% ( 3.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 60.36% ( 0.15) | 39.64% ( -0.15) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 38.01% ( 0.16) | 61.99% ( -0.16) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 88.75% ( -1.08) | 11.25% ( 1.08) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 64.17% ( -2.41) | 35.83% ( 2.41) |
| MVV Maastricht Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 60.83% ( 4.45) | 39.17% ( -4.46) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 24.12% ( 3.93) | 75.88% ( -3.93) |
| Score Analysis |
| Willem II | Draw | MVV Maastricht |
| 2-0 @ 10.51% ( -1.08) 2-1 @ 9.86% ( 0.24)1-0 @ 9.63% ( -0.51)3-0 @ 7.66% ( -1.17)3-1 @ 7.18% ( -0.15)4-0 @ 4.18% ( -0.86)4-1 @ 3.92% ( -0.26)3-2 @ 3.36% ( 0.33)4-2 @ 1.84% ( 0.1)5-0 @ 1.83% ( -0.48)5-1 @ 1.71% ( -0.2)Other @ 4.11% Total : 65.78% | 1-1 @ 9.02% ( 0.61) 2-2 @ 4.62% ( 0.63)0-0 @ 4.41% ( -0.03)3-3 @ 1.05% ( 0.21)Other @ 0.15% Total : 19.25% | 1-2 @ 4.23% ( 0.74) 0-1 @ 4.13% ( 0.45)0-2 @ 1.94% ( 0.41)2-3 @ 1.44% ( 0.34)1-3 @ 1.32% ( 0.36)Other @ 1.9% Total : 14.96% |
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