SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 50.59%. A win for Jong AZ had a probability of 26.42% and a draw had a probability of 23%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.6%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.44%) and 0-2 (7.66%). The likeliest Jong AZ win was 2-1 (6.63%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.57%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 6% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Jong AZ | Draw | Willem II |
26.42% ( -0.14) | 23% ( -0.08) | 50.59% ( 0.22) |
| Both teams to score 59.82% ( 0.15) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 59.21% ( 0.26) | 40.79% ( -0.26) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 36.82% ( 0.27) | 63.17% ( -0.26) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 71.45% ( 0.03) | 28.55% ( -0.03) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 35.66% ( 0.05) | 64.33% ( -0.04) |
| Willem II Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 83.72% ( 0.18) | 16.28% ( -0.17) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 54.18% ( 0.32) | 45.82% ( -0.31) |
| Score Analysis |
| Jong AZ | Draw | Willem II |
| 2-1 @ 6.63% ( -0.03) 1-0 @ 5.82% ( -0.06)2-0 @ 3.65% ( -0.04)3-1 @ 2.77% ( -0.01)3-2 @ 2.51% ( 0.01)3-0 @ 1.53% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.5% Total : 26.42% | 1-1 @ 10.57% ( -0.05) 2-2 @ 6.02% ( 0.01)0-0 @ 4.65% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.52% ( 0.01)Other @ 0.24% Total : 22.99% | 1-2 @ 9.6% ( 0.01) 0-1 @ 8.44% ( -0.05)0-2 @ 7.66% ( -0)1-3 @ 5.81% ( 0.04)0-3 @ 4.63% ( 0.03)2-3 @ 3.64% ( 0.03)1-4 @ 2.64% ( 0.03)0-4 @ 2.1% ( 0.02)2-4 @ 1.65% ( 0.02)1-5 @ 0.96% ( 0.02)Other @ 3.46% Total : 50.59% |
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