SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a SBV Excelsior win with a probability of 64.54%. A draw had a probability of 18.1% and a win for Jong AZ had a probability of 17.41%.
The most likely scoreline for a SBV Excelsior win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.29%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-1 (7.64%) and 2-0 (7.59%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (7.54%), while for a Jong AZ win it was 1-2 (4.62%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 2.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that SBV Excelsior would win this match.
| Result | ||
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Jong AZ |
64.54% ( 0.06) | 18.05% ( 0.04) | 17.41% ( -0.09) |
| Both teams to score 64.63% ( -0.36) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 71.28% ( -0.36) | 28.71% ( 0.37) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 50.37% ( -0.45) | 49.63% ( 0.46) |
| SBV Excelsior Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 91.49% ( -0.08) | 8.5% ( 0.09) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 70.54% ( -0.22) | 29.46% ( 0.22) |
| Jong AZ Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 70.63% ( -0.33) | 29.37% ( 0.33) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 34.65% ( -0.4) | 65.35% ( 0.41) |
| Score Analysis |
| SBV Excelsior | Draw | Jong AZ |
| 2-1 @ 9.29% ( 0.04) 3-1 @ 7.64% ( -0)2-0 @ 7.59% ( 0.1)3-0 @ 6.23% ( 0.06)1-0 @ 6.16% ( 0.11)4-1 @ 4.71% ( -0.02)3-2 @ 4.68% ( -0.04)4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0.02)4-2 @ 2.88% ( -0.04)5-1 @ 2.32% ( -0.02)5-0 @ 1.89% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.42% ( -0.02)4-3 @ 1.18% ( -0.03)6-1 @ 0.95% ( -0.01)Other @ 3.77% Total : 64.54% | 1-1 @ 7.54% ( 0.06) 2-2 @ 5.69% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 2.5% ( 0.05)3-3 @ 1.91% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.41% Total : 18.05% | 1-2 @ 4.62% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)2-3 @ 2.33% ( -0.03)1-3 @ 1.89% ( -0.02)0-2 @ 1.88% ( 0.01)Other @ 3.64% Total : 17.41% |
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