Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 44.41%. A win for Roda JC had a probability of 30.18% and a draw had a probability of 25.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 0-1 with a probability of 10.05%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (9.1%) and 0-2 (7.59%). The likeliest Roda JC win was 1-0 (7.99%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.05%). The actual scoreline of 2-2 was predicted with a 5.5% likelihood.
0.06) 
-0.09) 
