Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Willem II win with a probability of 48.45%. A win for De Graafschap had a probability of 27.85% and a draw had a probability of 23.7%.
The most likely scoreline for a Willem II win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.49%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.81%) and 2-0 (7.58%). The likeliest De Graafschap win was 1-2 (6.89%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Willem II would win this match.
-0.18) 
0.16) 
