Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Barrow win with a probability of 42.69%. A win for Port Vale had a probability of 29.35% and a draw had a probability of 28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Barrow win was 1-0 with a probability of 12.8%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.43%) and 2-0 (8.27%). The likeliest Port Vale win was 0-1 (10.11%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.05%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 1.9% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Barrow would win this match.
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