Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Port Vale win with a probability of 36.56%. A win for Barrow had a probability of 35.2% and a draw had a probability of 28.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Port Vale win was 0-1 with a probability of 11.54%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.76%) and 0-2 (6.77%). The likeliest Barrow win was 1-0 (11.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (13.22%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Port Vale would win this match.
