Though they travel north on a down note, following a sluggish start to the season, it will be a much-changed Aston Villa XI that starts on Tuesday, and their top-level experience should prevent them from being turned over. Bolton rarely lose at home, but they now find themselves stepping up in class. Read more.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Aston Villa win with a probability of 45.62%. A win for Bolton Wanderers had a probability of 30.5% and a draw had a probability of 23.9%.

The most likely scoreline for an Aston Villa win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.28%) and 0-2 (6.94%). The likeliest Bolton Wanderers win was 2-1 (7.34%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.02%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 2.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Aston Villa would win this match.

Result
Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Aston Villa
30.5% ( 3.37)	23.87% ( 0.27)	45.62% ( -3.64)

Both teams to score 59.84% (

1.47)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

57.87% (

0.88)

42.12% (

-0.89)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

35.47% (

0.88)

64.53% (

-0.88)

Bolton Wanderers Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

73.59% (

2.77)

26.41% (

-2.77)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

38.43% (

3.55)

61.57% (

-3.55)

Aston Villa Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

81.31% (

-1.1)

18.69% (

1.09)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

49.96% (

-1.87)

50.03% (

1.87)

Score Analysis

Bolton Wanderers 30.5%

Aston Villa 45.62%

Draw 23.87%

Bolton Wanderers	Draw	Aston Villa
2-1 @ 7.34% ( 0.57) 1-0 @ 6.57% ( 0.25) 2-0 @ 4.37% ( 0.48) 3-1 @ 3.26% ( 0.48) 3-2 @ 2.73% ( 0.32) 3-0 @ 1.94% ( 0.34) 4-1 @ 1.08% ( 0.23) 4-2 @ 0.91% ( 0.17) Other @ 2.3% Total : 30.5%	1-1 @ 11.02% ( 0.04) 2-2 @ 6.15% ( 0.28) 0-0 @ 4.94% ( -0.2) 3-3 @ 1.53% ( 0.13) Other @ 0.23% Total : 23.87%	1-2 @ 9.24% ( -0.3) 0-1 @ 8.28% ( -0.64) 0-2 @ 6.94% ( -0.81) 1-3 @ 5.17% ( -0.36) 0-3 @ 3.88% ( -0.61) 2-3 @ 3.44% ( 0.04) 1-4 @ 2.17% ( -0.24) 0-4 @ 1.63% ( -0.32) 2-4 @ 1.44% ( -0.04) Other @ 3.43% Total : 45.62%