SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Southampton win with a probability of 45.74%. A win for Stoke City had a probability of 30.27% and a draw had a probability of 24%.
The most likely scoreline for a Southampton win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.26%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (8.47%) and 2-0 (7.05%). The likeliest Stoke City win was 1-2 (7.3%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.12%). The actual scoreline of 3-2 was predicted with a 3.4% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Southampton would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Southampton | Draw | Stoke City |
45.74% ( 3.69) | 23.99% ( -0.48) | 30.27% ( -3.2) |
| Both teams to score 59.29% ( 0.26) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.22% ( 0.96) | 42.78% ( -0.96) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.82% ( 0.95) | 65.18% ( -0.95) |
| Southampton Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 81.1% ( 2) | 18.9% ( -2) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 49.61% ( 3.23) | 50.38% ( -3.23) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 73.11% ( -1.52) | 26.89% ( 1.52) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 37.79% ( -2.04) | 62.2% ( 2.04) |
| Score Analysis |
| Southampton | Draw | Stoke City |
| 2-1 @ 9.26% ( 0.35) 1-0 @ 8.47% ( 0.17)2-0 @ 7.05% ( 0.56)3-1 @ 5.15% ( 0.49)3-0 @ 3.92% ( 0.53)3-2 @ 3.38% ( 0.19)4-1 @ 2.14% ( 0.32)4-0 @ 1.63% ( 0.3)4-2 @ 1.41% ( 0.16)Other @ 3.34% Total : 45.75% | 1-1 @ 11.12% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 6.08% ( -0.03)0-0 @ 5.08% ( -0.22)3-3 @ 1.48% ( 0.02)Other @ 0.22% Total : 23.99% | 1-2 @ 7.3% ( -0.51) 0-1 @ 6.67% ( -0.6)0-2 @ 4.38% ( -0.61)1-3 @ 3.2% ( -0.37)2-3 @ 2.66% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 1.92% ( -0.36)1-4 @ 1.05% ( -0.17)Other @ 3.08% Total : 30.27% |
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