SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Stoke City win with a probability of 49.48%. A win for Portsmouth had a probability of 25.9% and a draw had a probability of 24.6%.
The most likely scoreline for a Stoke City win was 1-0 with a probability of 10.53%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.52%) and 2-0 (8.58%). The likeliest Portsmouth win was 0-1 (7.17%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.68%). The actual scoreline of 6-1 was predicted with a 0.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Stoke City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Stoke City | Draw | Portsmouth |
49.48% ( 0.81) | 24.62% ( -0.06) | 25.9% ( -0.76) |
| Both teams to score 53.89% ( -0.47) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 51.59% ( -0.3) | 48.4% ( 0.29) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 29.46% ( -0.27) | 70.54% ( 0.27) |
| Stoke City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.4% ( 0.21) | 19.59% ( -0.22) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 48.46% ( 0.35) | 51.53% ( -0.36) |
| Portsmouth Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 67.02% ( -0.77) | 32.98% ( 0.76) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 30.44% ( -0.85) | 69.56% ( 0.85) |
| Score Analysis |
| Stoke City | Draw | Portsmouth |
| 1-0 @ 10.53% ( 0.2) 2-1 @ 9.52% ( 0.05)2-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.22)3-1 @ 5.17% ( 0.06)3-0 @ 4.66% ( 0.15)3-2 @ 2.87% ( -0.03)4-1 @ 2.11% ( 0.04)4-0 @ 1.9% ( 0.07)4-2 @ 1.17% ( -0)Other @ 2.96% Total : 49.47% | 1-1 @ 11.68% ( -0.02) 0-0 @ 6.46% ( 0.08)2-2 @ 5.28% ( -0.08)3-3 @ 1.06% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.13% Total : 24.61% | 0-1 @ 7.17% ( -0.06) 1-2 @ 6.48% ( -0.15)0-2 @ 3.98% ( -0.12)1-3 @ 2.4% ( -0.11)2-3 @ 1.95% ( -0.07)0-3 @ 1.47% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.46% Total : 25.9% |
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