SM
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 12 | Doncaster Rovers | 9 | -1 | 14 |
| 13 | Carlisle United | 8 | 2 | 13 |
| 14 | Tranmere Rovers | 9 | 0 | 10 |
| Current League Standings | P | GD | PTS | |
| 10 | Peterborough United | 9 | 4 | 12 |
| 11 | Fleetwood Town | 9 | 1 | 12 |
| 12 | Shrewsbury Town | 9 | -1 | 12 |
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 38.59%. A win for Fleetwood Town had a probability of 36.22% and a draw had a probability of 25.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 8.58%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.51%) and 2-0 (6.15%). The likeliest Fleetwood Town win was 0-1 (8.27%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.85%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with an 11.9% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Carlisle United | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
38.59% ( 1.27) | 25.19% ( 0.08) | 36.22% ( -1.35) |
| Both teams to score 57.05% ( -0.34) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 53.44% ( -0.41) | 46.55% ( 0.41) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.17% ( -0.38) | 68.83% ( 0.39) |
| Carlisle United Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.17% ( 0.49) | 23.82% ( -0.49) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42% ( 0.7) | 58% ( -0.7) |
| Fleetwood Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.89% ( -0.93) | 25.11% ( 0.93) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 40.19% ( -1.3) | 59.81% ( 1.3) |
| Score Analysis |
| Carlisle United | Draw | Fleetwood Town |
| 1-0 @ 8.58% ( 0.27) 2-1 @ 8.51% ( 0.16)2-0 @ 6.15% ( 0.28)3-1 @ 4.07% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 2.94% ( 0.17)3-2 @ 2.81% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.46% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 1.06% ( 0.08)4-2 @ 1.01% ( 0.02)Other @ 2.01% Total : 38.59% | 1-1 @ 11.85% ( 0.05) 0-0 @ 5.98% ( 0.1)2-2 @ 5.88% ( -0.05)3-3 @ 1.3% ( -0.03)Other @ 0.17% Total : 25.18% | 0-1 @ 8.27% ( -0.08) 1-2 @ 8.19% ( -0.18)0-2 @ 5.71% ( -0.21)1-3 @ 3.78% ( -0.19)2-3 @ 2.71% ( -0.1)0-3 @ 2.63% ( -0.17)1-4 @ 1.3% ( -0.1)2-4 @ 0.94% ( -0.06)0-4 @ 0.91% ( -0.09)Other @ 1.78% Total : 36.22% |
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