Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Carlisle United win with a probability of 43.88%. A win for Rochdale had a probability of 29.18% and a draw had a probability of 26.9%.
The most likely scoreline for a Carlisle United win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.89%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.79%) and 2-0 (8.2%). The likeliest Rochdale win was 0-1 (9.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.74%). The actual scoreline of 3-3 was predicted with a 0.8% likelihood.
-0.56) 
0.97) 
