Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Reading win with a probability of 42.79%. A win for Cheltenham Town had a probability of 33.38% and a draw had a probability of 23.8%.
The most likely scoreline for a Reading win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.94%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.62%) and 0-2 (6.26%). The likeliest Cheltenham Town win was 2-1 (7.76%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.87%). The actual scoreline of 1-0 was predicted with a 6.6% likelihood.