SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Cheltenham Town win with a probability of 39.8%. A win for Newport County had a probability of 35.82% and a draw had a probability of 24.4%.
The most likely scoreline for a Cheltenham Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.65%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (7.81%) and 0-2 (5.99%). The likeliest Newport County win was 2-1 (8.14%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.27%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with an 8.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Cheltenham Town in this match.
| Result | ||
| Newport County | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
35.82% ( -0.09) | 24.38% ( -0.35) | 39.8% ( 0.43) |
| Both teams to score 59.92% ( 1.25) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 57.19% ( 1.62) | 42.81% ( -1.63) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 34.78% ( 1.59) | 65.21% ( -1.6) |
| Newport County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 76.4% ( 0.7) | 23.6% ( -0.7) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 42.32% ( 1) | 57.68% ( -1.01) |
| Cheltenham Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 78.44% ( 0.92) | 21.56% ( -0.92) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 45.36% ( 1.39) | 54.64% ( -1.4) |
| Score Analysis |
| Newport County | Draw | Cheltenham Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.14% ( -0.02) 1-0 @ 7.35% ( -0.38)2-0 @ 5.31% ( -0.16)3-1 @ 3.92% ( 0.07)3-2 @ 3.01% ( 0.13)3-0 @ 2.55% ( -0.02)4-1 @ 1.41% ( 0.05)4-2 @ 1.09% ( 0.07)4-0 @ 0.92% ( 0.01)Other @ 2.13% Total : 35.82% | 1-1 @ 11.27% ( -0.26) 2-2 @ 6.24% ( 0.16)0-0 @ 5.09% ( -0.38)3-3 @ 1.54% ( 0.11)Other @ 0.23% Total : 24.37% | 1-2 @ 8.65% ( 0.04) 0-1 @ 7.81% ( -0.35)0-2 @ 5.99% ( -0.1)1-3 @ 4.42% ( 0.14)2-3 @ 3.19% ( 0.17)0-3 @ 3.06% ( 0.04)1-4 @ 1.7% ( 0.1)2-4 @ 1.23% ( 0.1)0-4 @ 1.18% ( 0.05)Other @ 2.59% Total : 39.8% |
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