SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 64.15%. A draw had a probability of 18.6% and a win for Manchester City Under-21s had a probability of 17.28%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 2-1 with a probability of 9.55%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (8.24%) and 3-1 (7.53%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (8.08%), while for a Manchester City Under-21s win it was 1-2 (4.68%). The actual scoreline of 1-3 was predicted with a 1.8% likelihood.
| Result | ||
| Derby County | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
64.15% ( 0.01) | 18.57% ( -0) | 17.28% ( -0) |
| Both teams to score 62.2% ( 0) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 68.39% ( 0.01) | 31.62% ( -0.01) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 46.89% ( 0.01) | 53.12% ( -0.01) |
| Derby County Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 90.62% ( 0.01) | 9.39% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 68.4% ( 0.01) | 31.6% ( -0.01) |
| Manchester City Under-21s Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.65% ( -0) | 31.36% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.28% ( -0) | 67.72% ( 0) |
| Score Analysis |
| Derby County | Draw | Manchester City Under-21s |
| 2-1 @ 9.55% 2-0 @ 8.24% ( -0)3-1 @ 7.53% ( 0)1-0 @ 6.96% ( -0)3-0 @ 6.5% ( 0)4-1 @ 4.46% ( 0)3-2 @ 4.37% ( 0)4-0 @ 3.84% ( 0)4-2 @ 2.58% ( 0)5-1 @ 2.11% ( 0)5-0 @ 1.82% ( 0)5-2 @ 1.22% ( 0)4-3 @ 1% Other @ 3.97% Total : 64.15% | 1-1 @ 8.08% ( -0) 2-2 @ 5.54% ( -0)0-0 @ 2.94% ( -0)3-3 @ 1.69% Other @ 0.32% Total : 18.57% | 1-2 @ 4.68% ( -0) 0-1 @ 3.41% ( -0)2-3 @ 2.14% 0-2 @ 1.98% ( -0)1-3 @ 1.81% Other @ 3.25% Total : 17.28% |
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