Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.

Result
Derby County	Draw	Grimsby Town
41.73% ( 1.5)	25.48% ( 0.71)	32.8% ( -2.21)

Both teams to score 55.33% (

-3.05)

Goals

Over 2.5

Under 2.5

51.53% (

-3.71)

48.47% (

3.71)

Over 3.5

Under 3.5

29.4% (

-3.48)

70.6% (

3.48)

Derby County Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

76.91% (

-0.88)

23.09% (

0.88)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

43.07% (

-1.31)

56.93% (

1.31)

Grimsby Town Goals

Over 0.5

Under 0.5

71.94% (

-3.11)

28.06% (

3.11)

Over 1.5

Under 1.5

36.28% (

-4.13)

63.72% (

4.13)

Score Analysis

Derby County 41.73%

Grimsby Town 32.8%

Draw 25.47%

Derby County	Draw	Grimsby Town
1-0 @ 9.5% ( 1.16) 2-1 @ 8.85% ( 0.14) 2-0 @ 6.96% ( 0.69) 3-1 @ 4.32% ( -0.04) 3-0 @ 3.4% ( 0.25) 3-2 @ 2.75% ( -0.29) 4-1 @ 1.58% ( -0.06) 4-0 @ 1.25% ( 0.06) 4-2 @ 1.01% ( -0.13) Other @ 2.11% Total : 41.73%	1-1 @ 12.06% ( 0.49) 0-0 @ 6.48% ( 0.94) 2-2 @ 5.62% ( -0.42) 3-3 @ 1.16% ( -0.24) Other @ 0.15% Total : 25.47%	0-1 @ 8.23% ( 0.54) 1-2 @ 7.67% ( -0.37) 0-2 @ 5.23% ( -0.11) 1-3 @ 3.25% ( -0.47) 2-3 @ 2.38% ( -0.42) 0-3 @ 2.22% ( -0.26) 1-4 @ 1.03% ( -0.26) Other @ 2.79% Total : 32.8%