Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Derby County win with a probability of 41.73%. A win for Grimsby Town had a probability of 32.8% and a draw had a probability of 25.5%.
The most likely scoreline for a Derby County win was 1-0 with a probability of 9.5%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (8.85%) and 2-0 (6.96%). The likeliest Grimsby Town win was 0-1 (8.23%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.06%). The actual scoreline of 3-1 was predicted with a 4.3% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Derby County would win this match.
1.5) 
-2.21) 
