Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Mansfield Town win with a probability of 45.44%. A win for Derby County had a probability of 28.49% and a draw had a probability of 26.1%.
The most likely scoreline for a Mansfield Town win was 1-0 with a probability of 11.24%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-1 (9.08%) and 2-0 (8.23%). The likeliest Derby County win was 0-1 (8.47%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (12.39%).
-1.44) 
0.56) 
