SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Swindon Town win with a probability of 40.08%. A win for Exeter City had a probability of 34.94% and a draw had a probability of 25%.
The most likely scoreline for a Swindon Town win was 1-2 with a probability of 8.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.58%) and 0-2 (6.36%). The likeliest Exeter City win was 2-1 (8.02%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (11.72%). The actual scoreline of 2-1 was predicted with an 8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted that Exeter City would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Exeter City | Draw | Swindon Town |
34.94% ( 0.12) | 24.98% ( 0.29) | 40.08% ( -0.41) |
| Both teams to score 57.59% ( -1.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 54.22% ( -1.32) | 45.78% ( 1.32) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 31.9% ( -1.27) | 68.09% ( 1.27) |
| Exeter City Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 74.52% ( -0.55) | 25.47% ( 0.55) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 39.69% ( -0.76) | 60.31% ( 0.76) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 77.27% ( -0.78) | 22.72% ( 0.78) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 43.61% ( -1.16) | 56.39% ( 1.17) |
| Score Analysis |
| Exeter City | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.02% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 7.92% ( 0.32)2-0 @ 5.41% ( 0.13)3-1 @ 3.66% ( -0.05)3-2 @ 2.71% ( -0.1)3-0 @ 2.47% ( 0.02)4-1 @ 1.25% ( -0.04)4-2 @ 0.93% ( -0.05)Other @ 2.58% Total : 34.94% | 1-1 @ 11.72% ( 0.2) 2-2 @ 5.94% ( -0.13)0-0 @ 5.79% ( 0.32)3-3 @ 1.34% ( -0.08)Other @ 0.18% Total : 24.97% | 1-2 @ 8.69% ( -0.05) 0-1 @ 8.58% ( 0.28)0-2 @ 6.36% ( 0.07)1-3 @ 4.29% ( -0.13)0-3 @ 3.14% ( -0.04)2-3 @ 2.94% ( -0.13)1-4 @ 1.59% ( -0.09)0-4 @ 1.16% ( -0.04)2-4 @ 1.09% ( -0.08)Other @ 2.25% Total : 40.08% |
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