SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Crawley Town win with a probability of 38.87%. A win for Swindon Town had a probability of 37.97% and a draw had a probability of 23.2%.
The most likely scoreline for a Crawley Town win was 2-1 with a probability of 8.36%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-0 (6.27%) and 2-0 (5.15%). The likeliest Swindon Town win was 1-2 (8.25%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.17%). The actual scoreline of 4-2 was predicted with a 1.5% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted that Crawley Town would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
38.87% ( 0.02) | 23.15% ( -0) | 37.97% ( -0.02) |
| Both teams to score 64.77% ( 0.01) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 63.4% ( 0.02) | 36.6% ( -0.02) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 41.25% ( 0.02) | 58.75% ( -0.02) |
| Crawley Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.68% ( 0.02) | 19.32% ( -0.01) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.93% ( 0.03) | 51.07% ( -0.02) |
| Swindon Town Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 80.27% ( 0) | 19.73% ( 0) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
| 48.25% ( -0) | 51.75% ( 0.01) |
| Score Analysis |
| Crawley Town | Draw | Swindon Town |
| 2-1 @ 8.36% ( 0) 1-0 @ 6.27% ( -0)2-0 @ 5.15% ( 0)3-1 @ 4.58% ( 0)3-2 @ 3.72% ( 0)3-0 @ 2.82% ( 0)4-1 @ 1.88% ( 0)4-2 @ 1.53% ( 0)4-0 @ 1.16% ( 0)Other @ 3.4% Total : 38.87% | 1-1 @ 10.17% 2-2 @ 6.79% ( 0)0-0 @ 3.81% ( -0)3-3 @ 2.01% ( 0)Other @ 0.38% Total : 23.15% | 1-2 @ 8.25% ( -0) 0-1 @ 6.19% ( -0)0-2 @ 5.02% ( -0)1-3 @ 4.47% ( -0)2-3 @ 3.67% 0-3 @ 2.72% ( -0)1-4 @ 1.81% ( -0)2-4 @ 1.49% 0-4 @ 1.1% ( -0)Other @ 3.26% Total : 37.97% |
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