SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 81.88%. A draw had a probability of 11.6% and a win for Sparta Rotterdam had a probability of 6.52%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 3-0 with a probability of 10.37%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 2-0 (10.36%) and 3-1 (7.99%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.31%), while for a Sparta Rotterdam win it was 1-2 (2.05%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 7.8% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| Ajax | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
81.88% ( -0.77) | 11.6% ( 0.47) | 6.52% ( 0.3) |
| Both teams to score 51.02% ( -0.42) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 72.67% ( -1.3) | 27.34% ( 1.3) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 52.09% ( -1.65) | 47.91% ( 1.66) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.04% ( -0.36) | 4.97% ( 0.36) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 80.13% ( -1.1) | 19.87% ( 1.1) |
| Sparta Rotterdam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 53.69% ( -0.23) | 46.31% ( 0.24) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 18.04% ( -0.18) | 81.96% ( 0.18) |
| Score Analysis |
| Ajax | Draw | Sparta Rotterdam |
| 3-0 @ 10.37% ( 0.06) 2-0 @ 10.36% ( 0.32)3-1 @ 7.99% ( -0)2-1 @ 7.98% ( 0.19)4-0 @ 7.79% ( -0.15)1-0 @ 6.9% ( 0.38)4-1 @ 6% ( -0.15)5-0 @ 4.68% ( -0.21)5-1 @ 3.6% ( -0.19)3-2 @ 3.07% ( -0.02)6-0 @ 2.34% ( -0.17)4-2 @ 2.31% ( -0.08)6-1 @ 1.8% ( -0.14)5-2 @ 1.39% ( -0.08)7-0 @ 1% ( -0.1)Other @ 4.29% Total : 81.87% | 1-1 @ 5.31% ( 0.26) 2-2 @ 3.07% ( 0.05)0-0 @ 2.3% ( 0.18)Other @ 0.92% Total : 11.6% | 1-2 @ 2.05% ( 0.09) 0-1 @ 1.77% ( 0.13)Other @ 2.71% Total : 6.52% |
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