SM
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Ajax win with a probability of 76.05%. A draw had a probability of 13.3% and a win for FC Volendam had a probability of 10.69%.
The most likely scoreline for an Ajax win was 1-3 with a probability of 8.14%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 1-2 (7.85%) and 0-3 (7.05%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (5.05%), while for a FC Volendam win it was 2-1 (2.91%). The actual scoreline of 1-4 was predicted with a 6.3% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that Ajax would win this match.
| Result | ||
| FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
10.69% ( -0.23) | 13.26% ( 0.34) | 76.05% ( -0.11) |
| Both teams to score 65.44% ( -2.82) |
| Goals |
| Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
| 79.83% ( -2.55) | 20.17% ( 2.55) |
| Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
| 61.66% ( -3.72) | 38.33% ( 3.72) |
| FC Volendam Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 68.49% ( -2.55) | 31.51% ( 2.56) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 32.1% ( -3.06) | 67.9% ( 3.06) |
| Ajax Goals |
| Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
| 95.54% ( -0.53) | 4.46% ( 0.53) |
| Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 | |
| 81.68% ( -1.68) | 18.32% ( 1.68) |
| Score Analysis |
| FC Volendam | Draw | Ajax |
| 2-1 @ 2.91% ( 0.09) 3-2 @ 1.74% ( -0.15)1-0 @ 1.62% ( 0.21)3-1 @ 1.12% ( -0.05)2-0 @ 0.94% ( 0.06)Other @ 2.36% Total : 10.69% | 1-1 @ 5.05% ( 0.48) 2-2 @ 4.53% ( -0.04)3-3 @ 1.81% ( -0.23)0-0 @ 1.4% ( 0.27)Other @ 0.47% Total : 13.26% | 1-3 @ 8.14% ( 0.17) 1-2 @ 7.85% ( 0.46)0-3 @ 7.05% ( 0.62)0-2 @ 6.79% ( 0.84)1-4 @ 6.33% ( -0.12)0-4 @ 5.48% ( 0.28)2-3 @ 4.7% ( -0.24)0-1 @ 4.37% ( 0.69)1-5 @ 3.94% ( -0.24)2-4 @ 3.65% ( -0.34)0-5 @ 3.41% ( 0.04)2-5 @ 2.27% ( -0.32)1-6 @ 2.04% ( -0.21)0-6 @ 1.77% ( -0.05)3-4 @ 1.41% ( -0.24)2-6 @ 1.18% ( -0.22)1-7 @ 0.91% ( -0.14)Other @ 4.78% Total : 76.05% |
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